Knowledge

Finance & investment
concepts explained.

Clear background articles on the ideas behind my finance tools: asset classes, risk, financial independence, position sizing, company valuation and property investment.

Financial foundations

Retirement planning

ETF Withdrawals in Germany: What Reaches Your Account?

A worked example shows how the partial exemption, saver allowance and Vorabpauschale change the cash you keep.

Asset classes & risk

Comparing asset classes: returns, risk and backtests

How the S&P 500, Bitcoin and gold are compared on a shared euro basis, and what volatility, drawdown, Sharpe and Calmar actually tell you.

FIRE basics

How much money do I need for financial independence?

The core formula, German tax details and a worked example you can follow.

FIRE basics

The 4% rule explained simply

Where the best-known FIRE rule of thumb comes from, how it works and where its limits lie.

FIRE basics

Retirement ruin risk: how likely is it that your money runs out?

Why averages can mislead and how to assess your personal risk more seriously.

Position sizing & risk

Position sizing & risk

The Kelly criterion explained simply

The formula for an ideal stake when the odds are known, including its origin and a worked example.

Position sizing & risk

How much should you stake when you have an edge?

Why fixed stakes are usually suboptimal and how to tie position size to your edge.

Position sizing & risk

Spotting a value bet: when your estimate differs from the odds

How to calculate the implied probability of odds and test whether you actually have an edge.

Company valuation

Company valuation

Reverse DCF: which expectations are already priced in?

Turn the market price around to see what growth and margin a share price already assumes.

Company valuation

SpaceX before the IPO: how much future is already in the price?

DCF valuation as of 29 May 2026, key risks, overvaluation and insider lock-up periods.

Company valuation

The DCF method explained simply

How to calculate company value and what the present value of future cash flows means.

Company valuation

Calculating company value: how WACC works

How the cost of equity and debt fit together, and why WACC has such a strong effect on the result.

Company valuation

Discounted cash flow example: from forecast to terminal value

A worked example from the forecast phase through to the final company value.

Property investment

Property investment

Mortgage refinancing: would your budget survive higher rates?

Compare payments on €220,000 of remaining debt and check how much cash is left for setbacks.

Property investment

Evaluating property as an investment: key metrics

Gross and net yield, cash flow, ROE and the price multiplier, measured objectively rather than by gut feeling.

Property investment

Planning purchase costs and financing correctly

How to include transfer tax, notary fees, agent fees and an amortising loan in the calculation.

Property investment

30-year projection: cash flow, remaining debt and taxes over time

How rent growth, remaining debt, depreciation and the exit analysis develop over the holding period.

Economic concepts

Economic concepts

Inflation and purchasing power: why your own basket matters

Use your spending weights to estimate personal inflation and compare purchasing power.

Economics

What is the minimum principle?

Keep the result fixed and make the input as small as necessary. Feasible versus optimal, constraints and common mistakes.

Economics

Opportunity costs in everyday life

What are opportunity costs, and how do they shape everyday decisions?

Data analysis

Data analysis

Correlation is not diversification: what actually reduces portfolio risk

Why low historical correlation cannot rule out losses in the same crisis.

Data analysis

Data quality before the dashboard: what must be right?

Check provenance, units, duplicates, missing values and metrics before raw data becomes a chart.

Data analysis

How do I calculate the minimum principle?

A nutrition-optimizer example covering the pool, units, buildModel, solver, whole quantities and repair.