Historical comparison

Asset class backtester

See what $10,000 could have become.

Compare stock indices including dividends with Bitcoin, gold, real estate, global investment-grade bonds, broad commodities and money markets on the same starting capital. The two real-estate series use separate rent assumptions; the overall comparison can be shown in nominal or real terms.

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Market overview

Returns through the common data date

Fixed periods with $10,000 starting capital

Return comparison for all asset classes over seven fixed periods
Asset
S&P 500
Bitcoin
Gold
MSCI World
Real estate Germany
Real estate USA
DAX
EURO STOXX 50
Global IG bonds (EUR hedged)
Global IG bonds (unhedged)
Broad commodities
Euro money market
US money market (EUR)

Focus a table cell to see the date and starting value.

Individual series

Market values and calculated growth

Choose a period for each asset class

US stock market

S&P 500: price & dividends

Price series in EUR

– – in period
– from $10,000 Data date –

Crypto, BTC/EUR

Bitcoin

UTC daily reference value

– – in period
– from $10,000 Data date –

Precious metal

Gold

Investable EUR proxy

– – in period
– from $10,000 Data date –

Developed-markets stocks

MSCI World: price & dividends

Price series in EUR

– – in period
– from $10,000 Data date –

German residential real estate

Real-estate prices & net rental cash flow

Eurostat residential property price index, quarterly

– – in period
%

Default: 3.0% after ongoing property costs, without reinvestment. Calculate real-estate costs

– from $10,000 Data date –

German stock market

DAX: price & dividends

DAX price index

– – in period
– from $10,000 Data date –

Euro-area stock market

EURO STOXX 50: price & dividends

EURO STOXX 50 Price Index

– – in period
– from $10,000 Data date –

US residential real estate

Real-estate prices & net rental cash flow

FHFA residential property price index, monthly

– – in period
%

Default: 5.0% after ongoing property costs, without reinvestment. Calculate real-estate costs

– from $10,000 Data date –

Global bonds

Global IG bonds (EUR hedged)

Accumulating total-return proxy

–– in period
– from $10,000Data date –

Global bonds & currency

Global IG bonds (unhedged)

Total return from a EUR investor’s perspective

–– in period
– from $10,000Data date –

Global commodity basket

Broad commodities

Broad ETC total-return proxy in EUR

–– in period
– from $10,000Data date –

Euro-area liquidity

Euro money market

EONIA/€STR wealth index

–– in period
– from $10,000Data date –

Liquidity & USD/EUR

US money market (EUR)

EFFR/SOFR wealth index from a EUR perspective

–– in period
– from $10,000Data date –

Overall comparison

The same starting capital over the same period

$
Vergleichsreihen
Settings 5/17

All lines

Purchasing power

This selection deflates every line to purchasing power at the start date.

TER

Taxes

Nominal return | no inflation adjustment

Results

Metrics for the selected backtest

Loading period

Result metrics for the selected asset classes
Asset Ending value Gain / loss Total return CAGR Max. Drawdown Last observed value

Risk and daily distribution

Calculated from real consecutive observations, without carried-forward weekend or holiday values.

Risk and daily metrics for the selected asset classes
Asset Volatility p.a. Sharpe (0%) Calmar Best day Worst day Positive days Daily changes

Transparency

Methodology, sources and data status

How the comparison is calculated

For each asset, units are calculated at the value on the common start date. Bitcoin and gold follow starting capital × value(t) / value(start). For the S&P 500, MSCI World, DAX and EURO STOXX 50, the price index remains visible as its own line. A second line shows the corresponding value including price growth and reinvested dividends. Only total return and portfolio value use this second calculation.

Portfolio value(t)= starting capital × value(t) / value(start)
S&P dividend factor= product of (1 + monthly return)calendar days / 365.2425
MSCI World dividend factor= product of (1 + annual return) on each 31 December
DAX and EURO STOXX 50 dividend factor= product of (1 + annual return) on each 31 December
Real-estate value(t)= starting capital × price index(t) / price index(start) + starting capital × net cash flow p.a. × calendar days / 365.2425
Real comparison value(t)= nominal comparison value(t) ÷ inflation index(t) × inflation index(start)
Value after TER= value before costs × (1 − TER)calendar days / 365.2425
Overall comparison after tax= hypothetical sale proceeds(t) − modelled tax(t), then inflation-adjusted

Multpl publishes annualised dividend yield as the 12-month dividend per share divided by price. For the S&P 500, the backtester allocates this value pro rata up to each calendar date and assumes reinvestment. For the MSCI World, DAX and EURO STOXX 50, the full annual value is credited on 31 December. For the EURO STOXX 50, the historical net dividend factor uses an accumulating UCITS ETF proxy because an official SX5T history is not freely available. Daily risk metrics still use only real price observations.

Net rental cash flow is a freely adjustable model assumption after ongoing property costs. The default is 5.0% for the USA and 3.0% for Germany. It is calculated only in the respective individual series on the original starting capital, held as cash and not reinvested. Financing, purchase costs, selling costs and personal taxes must already be reflected in the inputs.

For real returns, the backtester divides each nominal portfolio value by the change in the selected consumer price index since the start date. Available choices are HICP for Germany and the euro area, US CPI-U and a constant custom annual rate. Monthly inflation values are carried forward until the next official observation.

TER is disabled by default and modelled as a constant annual cost only after explicit activation. It can be used for each individual series and uniformly across all lines in the overall comparison. This also applies to Bitcoin, gold and real estate if a fund, ETF, ETC or ETP product is being represented. The prefilled values are adjustable model assumptions. A series based on a fund proxy may already include ongoing product costs in its history; an additional TER input is therefore a conservative extra charge.

The tax model simulates a full sale on every chart date in the overall comparison. Equity ETFs receive a 30% partial exemption; the configured capital allowance, 25% withholding tax, solidarity surcharge and optional church tax are then modelled. Bitcoin and gold held for less than one year, and real estate held for less than ten years, use the configured personal rate; private sales use a €1,000 exemption. Loss carryforwards, advance lump-sum taxation, foreign withholding taxes, the favourable-tax-test and owner-occupier exceptions for real estate are not included. Each comparison line is calculated as a separate alternative and uses the allowance separately. This is a simplified model calculation, not tax advice. Legal references: § 20 InvStG, § 32d EStG, § 20 EStG, § 23 EStG, § 4 SolzG and the German Federal Ministry of Finance guidance on crypto assets.

Volatility, Sharpe ratio, best and worst observation day and the share of positive changes use only changes between real observations. Daily market series are annualised with 252 periods, Bitcoin with 365.2425, the US real-estate index with 12 and the German real-estate index with 4 periods per year. The backtester sets the risk-free rate to 0% for the Sharpe ratio.

The knowledge article explains the data series, calculations and limitations of the backtest in detail.

Data series and limitations

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