EXECUTIVE SUMMARY COMMODITY MARKETS OUTLOOK | APRIL 2026
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Commodity Unit 2024 2025 2026f 2027f 2026f 2027f 2026f 2027f
iNDEXES (in nominal U.S. dollars, 2010 = 100)
Total 1  105.1  98.4  113.7  99.8 15.5 -12.3 23.0 5.8
Energy 2  101 .5  90.0  111.3  92.1 23.6 -17 .2 31 .4 7. 2
Non-Energy  112.5  115.4  118.7  115.4 2.8 -2.8 6.0 2.9
  Agriculture  115.0  115.7  109.3  110.0 -5.6 0.6 -3.4 -1 .8
    Beverages  176.4  207 .3  144.8  147 .8 -30.1 2.1 -48.2 -36.1
    Food  115.8  109.2  111.9  113.3 2.4 1. 3 3.4 4.0
      Oils and Meals  106.9  104.5  109.0  109.3 4.3 0.3 5.7 5.7
      Grains  112.9  101 .3  103.7  106.0 2.4 2.2 2.9 3.2
      Other food  130.4  122.7  123.1  125.2 0.3 1. 7 0.9 2.4
    Raw Materials  81 .6  84.9  84.9  82.6 -0.1 -2.7 2.8 1. 4
      Timber  79.6  81 .8  81 .7  82.9 -0.1 1. 5 -1 .6 -1 .2
      Other Raw Materials  83.9  88.4  88.4  82.2 0.0 -7 .0 7. 6 4.1
  Fertilizers  117 .6  138.7  181 .3  152.1 30.7 -16.1 46.4 24.3
  Metals and Minerals 3  106.7  112.2  130.8  122.3 16.6 -6.5 20.7 10.3
  Base Metals 4  114.1  122.3  145.8  135.6 19.2 -7 .0 25.1 11. 9
Precious Metals 5  180.2  258.6  368.3  337 .7 42.4 -8.3 100.1 85.9
PRiCES (in nominal U.S. dollars) 
Energy
Coal, Australia $/mt  136.1  108.4  130.0  115.0 19.9 -11 .5 30.0 10.0
Crude oil, Brent $/bbl  80.7  69.0  86.0  70.0 24.6 -18.6 26.0 5.0
Natural gas, Europe $/mmbtu  11 .0  12.0  15.0  12.0 25.4 -20.0 4.2 2.2
Natural gas, U.S. $/mmbtu  2.2  3.5  3.8  4.0 7. 8 5.3 -0.1 0.1
Liquefied natural gas, Japan $/mmbtu  12.8  12.0  16.0  13.0 32.9 -18.8 4.5 2.5
       
Non-Energy        
  Agriculture        
    Beverages        
    Cocoa $/kg  7 .33  7 .80  3.80  4.20 -51 .3 10.5 -3.70 -2.80
    Coffee, Arabica $/kg  5.62  8.47  7 .25  7 .00 -14.4 -3.4 0.00 0.10
    Coffee, Robusta $/kg  4.41  4.86  4.00  3.90 -17 .7 -2.5 -0.70 -0.70
    Tea, average $/kg  3.04  2.91  2.85  3.00 -2.1 5.3 -0.10 0.00
       
    Food        
      Oils and Meals        
      Coconut oil $/mt  1,519  2,480  2,301  2,111 -7 .2 -8.3 47 126
      Groundnut oil $/mt  1,796  1,666  1,722  1,740 3.4 1. 0 185 138
      Palm oil $/mt  963  1,007  1,089  1,096 8.1 0.6 38 34
      Soybean meal $/mt  442  366  359  363 -1 .8 1. 1 23 20
      Soybean oil $/mt  1,022  1,140  1,233  1,236 8.2 0.2 58 78
      Soybeans $/mt  462  414  441  446 6.4 1. 1 31 30
      Grains
      Barley $/mt … … 172 174 ... 1. 2 -2 -1
      Maize $/mt 191 203 211 214 3.8 1. 4 16 17
      Rice, Thailand, 5% $/mt 588 408 401 413 -1 .7 3.0 0 4
      Wheat, U.S., HRW $/mt 269 243 253 260 4.0 2.8 -5 -7
TABLE 1 World Bank commodity price forecasts
Percent change from 
previous year
Differences in levels from 
October 2025 forecasts
EXECUTIVE SUMMARYCOMMODITY MARKETS OUTLOOK | APRIL 2026
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Commodity Unit 2024 2025 2026f 2027f 2026f 2027f 2026f 2027f
PRiCES (in nominal U.S. dollars)
Non-Energy
      Other Food
      Bananas, U.S. $/kg  1 .23  1 .10  1 .10  1 .12 0.4 1. 8 0.10 0.00
      Beef $/kg  5.93  6.86  7 .60  7 .81 10.8 2.8 0.80 0.90
      Chicken $/kg  1 .46  1 .71  1 .69  1 .72 -1 .4 1. 8 0.00 0.00
      Oranges $/kg  2.26  1 .42  1 .15  1 .20 -18.9 4.3 -0.30 -0.30
      Shrimp $/kg  …  …  9.00  9.47 ... 5.2 0.00 0.00
      Sugar, World $/kg  0.45  0.37  0.35  0.34 -5.8 -2.9 0.00 -0.10
    Raw Materials        
      Timber        
      Logs, Africa $/cum 379 395 400 405 1. 2 1. 3 5 5
      Logs, S.E. Asia $/cum 197 199 190 200 -4.6 5.3 -20 -15
      Sawnwood, S.E. Asia $/cum 697 718 725 730 0.9 0.7 0 0
           
      Other Raw Materials        
      Cotton $/kg  1 .91  1 .71  1 .65  1 .75 -3.3 6.1 -0.10 0.00
      Rubber, TSR20 $/kg  1 .75  1 .77  1 .90  1 .95 7. 4 2.6 0.10 0.10
      Tobacco $/mt  5,899  6,881  6,700  5,500 -2.6 -17 .9 1100 500
       
   Fertilizers        
   DAP $/mt 564 685 725 650 5.8 -10.3 75 50
   Phosphate rock $/mt 153 153 160 170 4.9 6.3 0 5
   Potassium chloride $/mt 295 348 390 365 12.2 -6.4 60 45
   TSP $/mt 475 578 625 550 8.2 -12.0 85 50
   Urea, E. Europe $/mt 338 423 675 500 59.7 -25.9 265 125
       
   Metals and Minerals        
   Aluminum $/mt  2,419  2,632  3,200  3,000 21 .6 -6.3 600 300
   Copper $/mt  9,142  9,947  12,000  11,000 20.6 -8.3 2200 1000
   Iron ore $/dmt 109.4 100.2 97 .0 95.0 -3.2 -2.1 3 5
   Lead $/mt  2,069  1,962  1,950  1,950 -0.6 0.0 -25 -50
   Nickel $/mt  16,814  15,162  17 ,000  17 ,500 12.1 2.9 1500 1500
   Tin $/mt  30,066  34,059  41,000  37 ,000 20.4 -9.8 7000 2500
   Zinc $/mt  2,776  2,868  3,000  2,750 4.6 -8.3 250 50
       
Precious Metals        
Gold $/toz  2,388  3,442  4,700  4,300 36.6 -8.5 1125 925
Silver $/toz  28.3  39.8  70.0  65.0 75.9 -7 .1 29.0 28.0
Platinum $/toz  955  1,278  1,950  1,700 52.5 -12.8 675 400
TABLE 1 World Bank commodity price forecasts
Source: World Bank.
1 . The World Bank Group’s commodity total price index is composed of energy and non-energy prices (excluding precious metals), weighted by their share in 2002-04 exports. The energy index’s share in the 
overall index is 67 percent. 
2. Energy price index includes coal (Australia), crude oil (Brent), and natural gas (Europe, Japan, U.S.).
3. Base metals plus iron ore.
4. Includes aluminum, copper, lead, nickel, tin, and zinc.
5. Precious metals are not part of the non-energy index.
f = forecast. 
Percent change from 
previous year
Differences in levels from 
October 2025 forecasts